🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Participant Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president just before it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion surged in the hours before former President Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended. A single trader, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a initial bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. However the market's assessment had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a rapid movement in positions right before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on inside information," stated an industry expert. A small number of other traders also profited tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill presented on Monday aims to prohibit public officials from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Market Background Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to predict everything from sports outcomes to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting space. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."